BirdAnalyst
Species · Florida · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Florida

All statesForest birds

Northern Cardinal in Florida has edged up: up 13% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+13%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
127Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Cardinal Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Cardinal in Florida. See the full index history below.

Northern Cardinal Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 54 (95% range 41–66). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+5%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
54Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
41–6695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 54 (95% range 41–66). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026534065
2027534065
2028534166
2029534166
2030544166

Northern Cardinal Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lovedale19220111987
New Hope16520112009
Miller Xrds15020191987
Miccosukee13820251966
Seminole Hills 213220222002
Pinetta12920251987
Blountstown10620251966
Betts9620251987
Broad Branch9320251967
Scottsmoor8920251968
Hildreth 28020252010
Oak Grove 27820252017
Mabel7720111966
Micanopy7619911966
San Antonio7620251967
St Lucie7620251987
Dowling Park7520251987
Laurel Hill7520252010
Cross City7420231988
Belmont7220251966
Seminole Hls6920001967
Citrus Park6920251989
Broward6619731966
Island Grove6620251992
Ft Mccoy6520251987

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.