BirdAnalyst
Species · Florida · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Florida

All statesGeneralists

Northern Cardinal in Florida has edged up: up 12% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+12%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
127Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Cardinal Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Cardinal in Florida. See the full index history below.

Northern Cardinal Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Florida is projected to rise about 11% by 2029 — from 48 in 2024 to a central estimate of 53 (95% range 41–66). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+11%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
53Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
41–6695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Florida is projected to rise about 11% by 2029 — from 48 in 2024 to a central estimate of 53 (95% range 41–66). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025524065
2026534065
2027534066
2028534066
2029534166

Northern Cardinal Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lovedale19220111987
Pinetta17420241987
New Hope16520112009
Miller Xrds15020191987
Seminole Hills 213220222002
Betts12520241987
Miccosukee12120241966
Broad Branch10520241967
Dowling Park9420231987
Scottsmoor8220241968
Blountstown7920241966
Mabel7720111966
Nobleton7720241987
Micanopy7619911966
Steinhatchee7520231966
Cross City7420231988
Alligator Pt7220241987
Seminole Hls6920001967
Laurel Hill6820242010
Broward6619731966
St Lucie6620241987
Hildreth 26420242010
Kenansville6320241967
Tamiami6319741966
Mt. Olive6320242002

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.