BirdAnalyst
Species · Ohio · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Ohio

All statesForest birds

Northern Cardinal in Ohio has surged: up 103% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+103%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
89Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Cardinal Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Cardinal has surged in Ohio: up 103% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Cardinal Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Ohio is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 33 (95% range 27–38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+8%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
27–3895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±4.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Ohio is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 33 (95% range 27–38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026322737
2027322738
2028322738
2029332738
2030332738

Northern Cardinal Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Harveysburg9919961966
Ashley7420181988
Harveysburg 27320251997
Birmingham7220241988
Darrtown6320211966
Smithfield6220251966
Omega6220241966
Marion6120231966
Lucerne5720251992
Garrettsvile5319911966
Vickery4920251996
Dresden4820251966
Wilgus4720191992
West Elkton4620121992
Enon4620251984
Tecumseh4519821966
Wilmington4419961966
Keene4420231992
Meadowbrook4320211966
Rome4320251966
Coshocton4219911990
Stonecreek4020251996
Baxter Ridge3920251998
Ash Ridge3920211992
Valley City3920251995

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.