BirdAnalyst
Species · Delaware · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Delaware

All statesForest birds

Northern Cardinal in Delaware has surged: up 141% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+141%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Cardinal Trends in DelawareNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Cardinal has surged in Delaware: up 141% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Cardinal Population Forecast in Delaware

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Delaware is projected to fall about 31% by 2030 — from 59 in 2025 to a central estimate of 41 (95% range 29–52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-31%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
41Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
29–5295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Delaware is projected to fall about 31% by 2030 — from 59 in 2025 to a central estimate of 41 (95% range 29–52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026392851
2027402851
2028402951
2029402952
2030412952

Northern Cardinal Survey Routes in Delaware

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in Delaware.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Frederica10320251966
Milton 28420252017
Pepperbox5320161998
Harrington5120251966
Holleyville4920041966
Pepperbox 24920252017
Mt Pleasant3820191966
Wilmington3520141966
Blackbird3420251994
Millsboro3320252017
Georgetown2920221992
Holleyville 22720242006
Milton2520161966
Frankford2120121966
Dover1819871966
Lowes Xrds1719911966
Bethany Bch419901966

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutfloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.