BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Missouri

All statesGeneralists

Northern Cardinal in Missouri has edged up: up 24% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+24%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
95Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Cardinal Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Cardinal in Missouri. See the full index history below.

Northern Cardinal Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Missouri is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 35 (95% range 30–41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-8%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
30–4195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Missouri is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 35 (95% range 30–41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025352940
2026353040
2027353040
2028353040
2029353041

Northern Cardinal Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Whitewater7920241996
Kingsville7920241992
Emden7320242017
Pulaski6820241974
Moselle6820242000
Kearney6720241994
Woodlandville6620242013
Cp Girardeau6520241967
Osage Beach6120241997
Milford6020242015
Frankford5920241985
Frazier5820241967
Richland5820212014
Marshfield5620231994
Danville5520241967
Rockingham5520241969
Kahoka25520242002
Graydon5120241967
Eugene5120242013
House Springs5020242017
Reeds4920231974
Pineville4820241974
Ohio4820241972
Gildehouse4819891978
Norborne4820232006

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.