BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Missouri

All statesForest birds

Northern Cardinal in Missouri has edged up: up 22% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+22%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
95Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Cardinal Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Cardinal in Missouri. See the full index history below.

Northern Cardinal Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Missouri is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 36 (95% range 30–41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-7%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
30–4195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Missouri is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 36 (95% range 30–41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026353040
2027353041
2028353041
2029363041
2030363041

Northern Cardinal Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pulaski8520251974
Rockingham7920251969
Kingsville7720251992
Emden7320242017
Reeds6720251974
Whitewater6620251996
Cp Girardeau5920251967
Frazier5820241967
Kearney5820251994
House Springs5820252017
Frankford5720251985
Marshfield5620231994
Osage Beach5620251997
Kahoka25520242002
Lincoln5420252013
Moselle5320252000
Crane5220251994
Woodlandville5120252013
Hayden5020251975
Barks5020251994
Akers4820251967
Gildehouse4819891978
Norborne4820232006
Harrisonville4820252017
Union4719991990

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.