BirdAnalyst
Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesForest birds

Northern Cardinal in Oklahoma has surged: up 81% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+81%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
68Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Cardinal Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Cardinal has surged in Oklahoma: up 81% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern Cardinal Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Oklahoma is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 42 (95% range 34–50). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-9%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
42Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
34–5095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Oklahoma is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 42 (95% range 34–50). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026403249
2027413349
2028413350
2029423350
2030423450

Northern Cardinal Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Choctaw13620231967
Phillips12820251968
Ft Sill West11919941994
Holdenville10720251967
Keetonville9920221992
Ardmore9520251967
Pocola8820161992
Tatums8620251992
Ft Sill East8319941994
Mill Creek7920251967
Wichita Mtns7819941994
Blanco7320161967
Sandbluff7120251992
Wichita Mts West7120252004
Matoy7020251992
Heyburn6920251992
Peoria6320231967
Beggs6220231967
Verden6020171967
Noble5720251967
Indianola5320251967
Wichita Mtns East5220252004
Goodwater5120211992
Colcord4820221992
Mcalester4619911967

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiopennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.