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Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesGeneralists

Northern Cardinal in Oklahoma has risen sharply: up 66% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+66%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
68Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Cardinal Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Cardinal has risen sharply in Oklahoma: up 66% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern Cardinal Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 48% by 2029 — from 28 in 2024 to a central estimate of 41 (95% range 33–49). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+48%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
41Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
33–4995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 48% by 2029 — from 28 in 2024 to a central estimate of 41 (95% range 33–49). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025403148
2026403248
2027403249
2028413349
2029413349

Northern Cardinal Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Choctaw13620231967
Ft Sill West11919941994
Keetonville9920221992
Holdenville9820241967
Tatums9020241992
Pocola8820161992
Noble8720241967
Ft Sill East8319941994
Wichita Mtns7819941994
Mill Creek7520181967
Blanco7320161967
Sandbluff6919951992
Ardmore6820091967
Matoy6620001992
Peoria6320231967
Beggs6220231967
Heyburn6220241992
Verden6020171967
Welch5220241967
Goodwater5120211992
Colcord4820221992
Mcalester4619911967
Wichita Mtns East4620222004
Baron4520231967
Phillips4420081968

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiopennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.