BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesGeneralists

Northern Cardinal in North Carolina has edged down: down 16% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-16%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
111Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Cardinal Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Cardinal in North Carolina. See the full index history below.

Northern Cardinal Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in North Carolina is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 42 in 2024 to a central estimate of 33 (95% range 23–42). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
23–4295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in North Carolina is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 42 in 2024 to a central estimate of 33 (95% range 23–42). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
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Northern Cardinal Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Brevard10220241968
Myrtle Grove9220241966
Wilgrove8920241995
Shallotte8419911966
Kinston8320241966
Oakboro8120241969
Supply7520241992
Raeford7220241990
Montague7120241990
Durham7120241990
Climax6820241966
Mooresville 26520242006
Cypress Cr6320221990
Pinetops6320241997
Youngsville6020241966
Jamesville5920241983
Cypress Lakes5720242004
Dortches5620241990
California 25520242014
Flay5420241990
Ernul5420092001
Call5320241968
Fairview5220241991
Maple Hill5020231995
Hulls Xroads5020231997

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.