BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesForest birds

Northern Cardinal in North Carolina has edged down: down 13% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-13%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
111Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Cardinal Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Cardinal in North Carolina. See the full index history below.

Northern Cardinal Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in North Carolina is projected to fall about 20% by 2030 — from 41 in 2025 to a central estimate of 33 (95% range 23–43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-20%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
23–4395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in North Carolina is projected to fall about 20% by 2030 — from 41 in 2025 to a central estimate of 33 (95% range 23–43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
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Northern Cardinal Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wilgrove9120251995
Brevard8720251968
Shallotte8419911966
Kinston8320241966
Myrtle Grove8120251966
Montague7820251990
Climax7520251966
Cypress Lakes7420252004
Oakboro7320251969
Supply6420251992
Cypress Cr6320221990
Pinetops6320241997
Durham6220251990
Eden6020251987
Bullock5920251997
Raeford5920251990
Sawmill5720251990
Ernul5420092001
Genoa5320251990
Fairview5220251991
Mooresville 25020252006
Maple Hill5020231995
Hulls Xroads5020231997
Dortches5020251990
Monticello5020251990

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.