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Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesForest birds

Northern Cardinal in Minnesota has surged: up 329% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+329%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Cardinal Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Cardinal has surged in Minnesota: up 329% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern Cardinal Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Minnesota is projected to fall about 14% by 2030 — from 4.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 2.7–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.7–4.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Minnesota is projected to fall about 14% by 2030 — from 4.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 2.7–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.52.54.5
20273.52.54.5
20283.62.64.6
20293.62.64.6
20303.72.74.7

Northern Cardinal Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Minnetonka4820251969
Caledonia 23220252013
Whitewater2320001994
Chatfield 22220252003
Knapp1820251967
Osseo1520251970
Millville1320251967
Lakeville1320251975
St Stephen1320251968
Le Roy1120251993
Courtland1020251979
Chatfield919991967
Frontenac920241993
Austin820231993
Caledonia720121993
Princeton620241972
Le Center620251993
Money Creek520251967
Whitewater 2520192011
Ash Creek420251975
Maynard420151983
Franklin420252004
Brook Park420251999
New London420241999
Redwood Fall320151984

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.