BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesGeneralists

Northern Cardinal in Minnesota has surged: up 275% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+275%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Cardinal Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Cardinal has surged in Minnesota: up 275% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern Cardinal Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Minnesota is projected to fall about 13% by 2029 — from 4.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.5 (95% range 2.6–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.6–4.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Minnesota is projected to fall about 13% by 2029 — from 4.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.5 (95% range 2.6–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.42.44.4
20263.42.44.4
20273.52.54.5
20283.52.54.5
20293.52.64.5

Northern Cardinal Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Caledonia 23520242013
Osseo3420241970
Minnetonka3120241969
Chatfield 22720242003
Knapp2320241967
Whitewater2320001994
Courtland1420241979
St Stephen1420161968
Money Creek1220241967
Lakeville1120211975
Chatfield919991967
Le Roy920241993
Frontenac920241993
Austin820231993
Caledonia720121993
Princeton620241972
Fairmont520231993
Le Center520231993
Whitewater 2520192011
Huntley420241979
Millville420191967
Maynard420151983
New London420241999
Ash Creek320241975
Redwood Fall320151984

Northern Cardinal Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.