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Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ruby-throated Hummingbird Population Trend in Virginia

All statesGeneralists

Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Virginia has surged: up 98% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+98%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
85Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ruby-throated Hummingbird Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ruby-throated Hummingbird has surged in Virginia: up 98% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Ruby-throated Hummingbird Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Virginia is projected to rise about 188% by 2029 — from 0.36 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.71–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+188%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.71–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±49.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Virginia is projected to rise about 188% by 2029 — from 0.36 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.71–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.00.671.4
20261.00.681.4
20271.00.691.4
20281.00.701.4
20291.10.711.4

Ruby-throated Hummingbird Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Finchley820212009
Truhart620231996
Surry520211979
Rural Retrt520231982
New Market520221993
W Augusta420241967
White Stone420231967
Cornland420141975
Gloucester420231993
Waverly319871979
Clinchport319751968
Elamsville320141982
Ringgold320231985
Branchville320171966
Appomattox320241996
Dryden319991991
Dismal Swamp320161992
Taylorstown220061974
Stanley220181970
Partlow220151978
Carters Brdg220131973
Shipman220101972
Hall220231980
Church Road220211966
Quinby220241966

Ruby-throated Hummingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.