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Species · Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ruby-throated Hummingbird Population Trend in Virginia

All statesForest birds

Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Virginia has surged: up 76% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+76%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ruby-throated Hummingbird Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ruby-throated Hummingbird has surged in Virginia: up 76% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Ruby-throated Hummingbird Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Virginia is projected to rise about 32% by 2030 — from 0.79 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.70–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+32%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.70–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±48.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Virginia is projected to rise about 32% by 2030 — from 0.79 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.70–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.00.671.4
20271.00.671.4
20281.00.681.4
20291.00.691.4
20301.00.701.4

Ruby-throated Hummingbird Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Finchley820212009
Truhart620231996
New Market520221993
Cornland420141975
Shenandoa Np420251993
Gloucester420231993
Putnam320251971
Waverly319871979
Surry320251979
Quinby320251966
Clinchport319751968
Elamsville320141982
Ringgold320231985
Branchville320171966
Appomattox320241996
Dryden319991991
Brandon320251992
Dismal Swamp320161992
Pine Mtn.320251996
Taylorstown220061974
Stanley220181970
Partlow220151978
Carters Brdg220131973
Shipman220101972
White Stone220251967

Ruby-throated Hummingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.