BirdAnalyst
Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ruby-throated Hummingbird Population Trend in Michigan

All statesGeneralists

Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Michigan has surged: up 337% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+337%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
98Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ruby-throated Hummingbird Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ruby-throated Hummingbird has surged in Michigan: up 337% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Ruby-throated Hummingbird Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Michigan is projected to rise about 156% by 2029 — from 0.40 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.69–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±84.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+156%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.69–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±84.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Michigan is projected to rise about 156% by 2029 — from 0.40 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.69–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±84.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.970.631.3
20260.990.651.3
20271.00.661.3
20281.00.681.4
20291.00.691.4

Ruby-throated Hummingbird Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ontonagon420191969
Herman420131993
Almena420151996
Ned Lake320241988
Ishpeming320211981
Howardsville320231976
Raco320241973
Bell Oak320081996
Beaver Lake320111982
Belding 2320232004
Allegan Wma320191993
Big Island Lake320092008
Bootjack220231992
Crystal Fls220241981
Gibbs City220241985
Scottville220191989
Bravo220221979
Monterey220241987
St Charles219901977
No Bradley220191990
Lapeer220242002
Hamburg 2220232006
Imp Lake220191992
Barry S.G.A. 2220192013
Bergland120221979

Ruby-throated Hummingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.