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Species · Arkansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ruby-throated Hummingbird Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesForest birds

Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Arkansas has edged down: down 21% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-21%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
57Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ruby-throated Hummingbird Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Arkansas. See the full index history below.

Ruby-throated Hummingbird Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Arkansas is projected to rise about 80% by 2030 — from 0.64 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.57–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±105.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+80%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.57–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±105.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Arkansas is projected to rise about 80% by 2030 — from 0.64 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.57–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±105.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.10.551.7
20271.10.551.7
20281.10.561.7
20291.20.561.7
20301.20.571.7

Ruby-throated Hummingbird Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Farwell1120182010
Crowley'S Ridge620222011
Marshall420212011
Havana420212010
Augusta319971967
Massard320161970
Avoca320231967
Centerton320252011
Yellville320252010
Stephens320152014
Waldron220251970
Harrisburg220191968
Whitton219911971
Stark220251968
Maynard220221968
Zion220231967
Sims220252011
Lockesburg220182010
Springhill220222010
Magazine Mtn220251994
Hatfield 2220242018
Princeton220141998
Wilson220121997
Old Milo120251967
Eudora120141968

Ruby-throated Hummingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.