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Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ruby-throated Hummingbird Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesGeneralists

Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Arkansas has edged down: down 11% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-11%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
57Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ruby-throated Hummingbird Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Arkansas. See the full index history below.

Ruby-throated Hummingbird Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Arkansas is projected to rise about 178% by 2029 — from 0.43 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.61–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±108.2%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+178%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.61–1.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±108.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Arkansas is projected to rise about 178% by 2029 — from 0.43 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.61–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±108.2%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.20.591.7
20261.20.591.8
20271.20.601.8
20281.20.611.8
20291.20.611.8

Ruby-throated Hummingbird Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Farwell1120182010
Crowley'S Ridge620222011
Marshall420212011
Havana420212010
Augusta319971967
Massard320161970
Avoca320231967
Stephens320152014
Waldron220241970
Harrisburg220191968
Whitton219911971
Stark220211968
Maynard220221968
Zion220231967
Yellville220222010
Lockesburg220182010
Springhill220222010
Hatfield 2220242018
Princeton220141998
Nance220241994
Wilson220121997
Old Milo120091967
Eudora120141968
Ramsey119961967
Locust Bayou120211968

Ruby-throated Hummingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.