BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ruby-throated Hummingbird Population Trend in Missouri

All statesGeneralists

Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Missouri has surged: up 486% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+486%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
90Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ruby-throated Hummingbird Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ruby-throated Hummingbird has surged in Missouri: up 486% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Ruby-throated Hummingbird Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Missouri is projected to rise about 62% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 1.6–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+62%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.6–2.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Missouri is projected to rise about 62% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 1.6–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.11.52.8
20262.11.52.8
20272.21.52.8
20282.21.62.9
20292.31.62.9

Ruby-throated Hummingbird Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Syracuse720241971
Graydon620241967
Woodlandville520242013
Sweden420211970
Cascade420241969
Ohio420241972
Barks420241994
Marshfield420221996
Frankford420231999
Eugene420242013
Richland420212014
Danville320241969
New Point320232005
Kahoka2320232002
Gerald320242013
Milford320242015
West Plains320242015
Union319991991
Rueter 2320242023
Clementine220021975
Handley220231969
Filley220241976
Warren219691967
Huntsville220241975
Frazier220231995

Ruby-throated Hummingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.