BirdAnalyst
Species · New Jersey · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ruby-throated Hummingbird Population Trend in New Jersey

All statesGeneralists

Ruby-throated Hummingbird in New Jersey has surged: up 330% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+330%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
31Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ruby-throated Hummingbird Trends in New JerseyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ruby-throated Hummingbird has surged in New Jersey: up 329% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Ruby-throated Hummingbird Population Forecast in New Jersey

If the recent trend holds, Ruby-throated Hummingbird in New Jersey is projected to fall about 32% by 2029 — from 0.62 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.42 (95% range 0.19–0.66). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-32%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.42Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.19–0.6695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruby-throated Hummingbird in New Jersey is projected to fall about 32% by 2029 — from 0.62 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.42 (95% range 0.19–0.66). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.400.160.63
20260.410.170.64
20270.410.180.65
20280.420.180.65
20290.420.190.66

Ruby-throated Hummingbird Survey Routes in New Jersey

Routes recording Ruby-throated Hummingbird in New Jersey.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Del Haven319911991
Pomona320241990
Cape May Ch320111993
Winslow320241990
Woodbury Hgt220241986
Greenwich220181968
Midvale220161974
Kemah Lake220231984
High Point220241991
Six Points120241979
Spraguetown 2120032003
Albion120221968
Sandbrook120041970
Holmansville120041969
New Bedford120161976
Croton119891980
Hope119941977
Bloomsbury119921978
Dover120192007
Pottersville120111989
Gillette120151990
Keyport120221993
Cranbury119871987
Roosevelt120142014
Friendship120241991

Ruby-throated Hummingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.