BirdAnalyst
Species · Massachusetts · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ruby-throated Hummingbird Population Trend in Massachusetts

All statesGeneralists

Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Massachusetts has surged: up 371% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+371%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
31Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ruby-throated Hummingbird Trends in MassachusettsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ruby-throated Hummingbird has surged in Massachusetts: up 371% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Ruby-throated Hummingbird Population Forecast in Massachusetts

If the recent trend holds, Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Massachusetts is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.97 (95% range 0.52–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-9%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.97Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.52–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Massachusetts is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.97 (95% range 0.52–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.900.451.4
20260.920.471.4
20270.930.481.4
20280.950.501.4
20290.970.521.4

Ruby-throated Hummingbird Survey Routes in Massachusetts

Routes recording Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Massachusetts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Marion620241966
Brockton520191983
Wellfleet 2420242016
Maynard320221997
Cummington320141970
Chesterfield320191970
Belchertown220241991
Warren220002000
Monterey220192019
Gay Head220222001
E Dennis120181982
Chilmark119691969
Wellfleet120051966
Prattville120121998
Newburyport120162013
Littleton120082008
N Oxford120212007
Mansfield120242006
Ware River120221993
E Pepperell119921968
S Barre120241989
N Orange120241976
Cheshire119941973
Pittsfield120161974
Sheffield120131982

Ruby-throated Hummingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.