BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ruby-throated Hummingbird Population Trend in Texas

All statesGeneralists

Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Texas has declined: down 28% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-28%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
91Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ruby-throated Hummingbird Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Texas. See the full index history below.

Ruby-throated Hummingbird Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Texas is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.08Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±69.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Texas is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.100.000.31
20260.090.000.30
20270.090.000.30
20280.090.000.30
20290.080.000.29

Ruby-throated Hummingbird Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Winnie519761972
Mcfaddin420122012
Chandler319961968
Weches320241995
Schroeder219921967
New Waverly220191976
Oak Grove219971977
Peach Creek219861967
Oakwood219801971
Athens220231969
Wolfe City219801969
Rhome220241985
Cayuga220242001
Blue Ridge220191993
Moon Lake219971996
Yoakum220051996
Union Hill220192003
Bonner220122007
Bon Wier220091997
Smyrna220001995
Gambill Ref.220231995
Goliad Prairie220122012
Moon Lake 2220222013
Lag Atascosa119891985
Petronila120092009

Ruby-throated Hummingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.