BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ruby-throated Hummingbird Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesGeneralists

Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Minnesota has surged: up 94% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+94%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
70Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ruby-throated Hummingbird Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ruby-throated Hummingbird has surged in Minnesota: up 94% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Ruby-throated Hummingbird Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Minnesota is projected to rise about 42% by 2029 — from 0.26 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.36 (95% range 0.19–0.53). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+42%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.36Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.19–0.5395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Minnesota is projected to rise about 42% by 2029 — from 0.26 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.36 (95% range 0.19–0.53). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.350.180.52
20260.350.180.52
20270.350.190.52
20280.360.190.53
20290.360.190.53

Ruby-throated Hummingbird Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Caledonia 2520212018
Pine River420031971
Jordan320222004
Huntley220192015
Tamarac Nwr220231991
Millville220191968
Hart Lake220151979
Floodwood220241970
Island Lake219901971
Sherry Lake220221969
Nett Lake220242014
Lake Bronson220002000
Mahtowa220231993
Blackduck220222005
Chisholm220222022
Money Creek120161967
Chatfield119961986
Hartland120131975
Sherburne Nr120242002
Lakeville119691969
Minnetonka120222000
Arlington120191973
Courtland120122001
Cass Lake120141984
Nebish120181982

Ruby-throated Hummingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.