BirdAnalyst
Species · Tennessee · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ruby-throated Hummingbird Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesGeneralists

Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Tennessee has surged: up 138% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+138%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ruby-throated Hummingbird Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ruby-throated Hummingbird has surged in Tennessee: up 138% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Ruby-throated Hummingbird Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Tennessee is projected to rise about 56% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 1.00–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+56%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.00–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Tennessee is projected to rise about 56% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 1.00–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.50.922.1
20261.50.942.1
20271.50.962.1
20281.50.982.1
20291.61.002.1

Ruby-throated Hummingbird Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Indian Mound819911970
Big Sandy520241971
Mansfield420241973
Silerton420241967
Tullahoma420151975
Trenton320231973
Campbellsville320171970
Silver Pt320221967
Elk Valley320221970
Corryton Rd320192019
Signal Mtn220231979
Tiptonville220221966
Pawpaw220091966
Brownsville220241967
Sweetlips220231966
Pond Creek220191967
Wrigley220221973
Peytonsville220241966
Bradyville220151975
Glen220191966
Mcfarland219841967
Walland219881967
Allens Brdge220231968
Moscow120241970
Tibbs120191968

Ruby-throated Hummingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.