BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ruby-throated Hummingbird Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesGeneralists

Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Kentucky has increased: up 27% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+27%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ruby-throated Hummingbird Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Kentucky. See the full index history below.

Ruby-throated Hummingbird Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Kentucky is projected to rise about 185% by 2029 — from 0.39 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.51–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±89.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+185%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.51–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±89.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Kentucky is projected to rise about 185% by 2029 — from 0.39 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.51–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±89.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.10.471.7
20261.10.481.7
20271.10.491.7
20281.10.501.7
20291.10.511.7

Ruby-throated Hummingbird Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Gatewood1220191966
Cumberlnd Gp620181967
Pleasurevill520221986
Staffordsvil519971996
Hegira420191988
Pippa Passes319971988
Merrimac320241967
Eastview320221969
Boxville319761976
Morganfield320242022
Mammoth Cave North320092009
Levee 2320192007
Beattyville220001968
Levee219821967
Hustonville220221968
Joy220231968
Sewell Shop220191974
East Union220221968
Paintsville219941979
Bays Fork220191999
Million 2220172008
Brownsville120232023
Lovelacevile120221967
Shiloh120211972
Canton120231967

Ruby-throated Hummingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.