BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ruby-throated Hummingbird Population Trend in New York

All statesGeneralists

Ruby-throated Hummingbird in New York has surged: up 145% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+145%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
119Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ruby-throated Hummingbird Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ruby-throated Hummingbird has surged in New York: up 145% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Ruby-throated Hummingbird Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Ruby-throated Hummingbird in New York is projected to rise about 55% by 2029 — from 0.40 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.63 (95% range 0.37–0.89). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.7%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+55%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.63Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.37–0.8995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±68.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruby-throated Hummingbird in New York is projected to rise about 55% by 2029 — from 0.40 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.63 (95% range 0.37–0.89). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.7%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.600.340.86
20260.610.350.87
20270.610.350.87
20280.620.360.88
20290.630.370.89

Ruby-throated Hummingbird Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Ruby-throated Hummingbird in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
S Berne 2520242024
Castile420151980
Branchport320241995
Mckeever320211976
Dannemora320061975
Milford320191980
Platte Cove220181976
Macdougall220231975
Vestal Ctr220121978
Phillips Cr220241968
Canadice L220241971
West Seneca220021990
Nashville220181979
E Youngstown220221980
N Victory 2220182006
Kasoag220161984
Highmarket220161974
N Wilmurt219971967
Clinton220111987
Newcomb220211971
Speculator220191966
Hope Falls219951969
Inlet220171980
North River220071967
Warrensburg220181968

Ruby-throated Hummingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.