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Species · Kansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ruby-throated Hummingbird Population Trend in Kansas

All statesGeneralists

Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Kansas has surged: up 460% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+460%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ruby-throated Hummingbird Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ruby-throated Hummingbird has surged in Kansas: up 460% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Ruby-throated Hummingbird Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Kansas is projected to fall about 49% by 2029 — from 0.42 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.22 (95% range 0.06–0.38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.2%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-49%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.22Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.06–0.3895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±60.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Kansas is projected to fall about 49% by 2029 — from 0.42 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.22 (95% range 0.06–0.38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.2%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.200.040.36
20260.210.050.37
20270.210.050.37
20280.210.050.37
20290.220.060.38

Ruby-throated Hummingbird Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Morehead320242003
Trading Post320242000
Wreford220241969
Pittsburg220212000
Severance220232003
Olsburg220242001
Rock Creek 2220232022
Melrose120131968
Galesburg120182004
Humboldt120221989
Lapland120112011
Wellington120232000
Dalton120241973
Coats119981992
Coldwater119741974
Olathe120211970
Dover120172017
Barclay120081974
Ellinor120212013
Buckeye120191975
Kanopolis120231976
Grantville119921992
Rock Creek120171977
Hanover119701970
Seneca119901967

Ruby-throated Hummingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.