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Species · North Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ruby-throated Hummingbird Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesForest birds

Ruby-throated Hummingbird in North Carolina has increased: up 41% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+41%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
107Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ruby-throated Hummingbird Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Ruby-throated Hummingbird in North Carolina. See the full index history below.

Ruby-throated Hummingbird Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Ruby-throated Hummingbird in North Carolina is projected to rise about 172% by 2030 — from 0.49 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.53–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±140.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+172%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.53–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±140.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruby-throated Hummingbird in North Carolina is projected to rise about 172% by 2030 — from 0.49 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.53–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±140.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.30.492.1
20271.30.502.1
20281.30.512.1
20291.30.522.1
20301.30.532.1

Ruby-throated Hummingbird Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Ruby-throated Hummingbird in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mattamuskeet720211998
Jackson720171995
Jordan420081969
Cherryville419661966
Murphy420181997
Cullowhee320251974
Ernul320092001
Busick319991999
Shallotte219911969
Wards Corner220231966
Mashoes219751971
Arapahoe219951966
Mooresville220011980
Fontana220251977
Youngsville220251967
Madison219851976
Linville220251981
Supply220251992
Milltail Cr220241993
Oteen220231976
Newport220181996
Pinetops220221997
Rhems219931991
Biscoe220251990
Hendersonvil220211996

Ruby-throated Hummingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.