BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ruby-throated Hummingbird Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesGeneralists

Ruby-throated Hummingbird in North Carolina has risen sharply: up 52% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+52%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
107Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ruby-throated Hummingbird Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ruby-throated Hummingbird has risen sharply in North Carolina: up 52% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Ruby-throated Hummingbird Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Ruby-throated Hummingbird in North Carolina is projected to rise about 117% by 2029 — from 0.64 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.61–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±110.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+117%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.61–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±110.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruby-throated Hummingbird in North Carolina is projected to rise about 117% by 2029 — from 0.64 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.61–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±110.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.40.572.1
20261.40.582.1
20271.40.592.2
20281.40.602.2
20291.40.612.2

Ruby-throated Hummingbird Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Ruby-throated Hummingbird in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mattamuskeet720211998
Jackson720171995
Brevard620241969
Jordan420081969
Cherryville419661966
Murphy420181997
Dortches420241990
Cullowhee320241974
Ernul320092001
Busick319991999
Shallotte219911969
Wards Corner220231966
Mashoes219751971
Arapahoe219951966
Mooresville220011980
Fontana220241977
Madison219851976
Milltail Cr220241993
Jamesville220221984
Oteen220231976
California 2220242015
Newport220181996
Pinetops220221997
Rhems219931991
Biscoe220091990

Ruby-throated Hummingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.