BirdAnalyst
Species · Vermont · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ruby-throated Hummingbird Population Trend in Vermont

All statesForest birds

Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Vermont has increased: up 35% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+35%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ruby-throated Hummingbird Trends in VermontNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Vermont. See the full index history below.

Ruby-throated Hummingbird Population Forecast in Vermont

If the recent trend holds, Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Vermont is projected to fall about 36% by 2030 — from 1.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.64 (95% range 0.28–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-36%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.64Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.28–1.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Vermont is projected to fall about 36% by 2030 — from 1.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.64 (95% range 0.28–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.640.280.99
20270.640.280.99
20280.640.281.00
20290.640.281.00
20300.640.281.0

Ruby-throated Hummingbird Survey Routes in Vermont

Routes recording Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Vermont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Northfld Fls720251980
Marlboro220231967
Landgrove220251969
Gaysville220251978
Middlesex220221978
Greensboro220251967
North Pownal120211966
Stratton120211966
S Reading120221982
Post Mills120191966
Shaftsbury120251966
S Wallingfrd120191966
W Rutland120251973
St Johnsbury120251972
East Haven120211968
East Calais120251966
Newbury120041986
Hardwick120241974
Fletcher120221983
Waterville119801971
Hinesburg119911986
Colchester120072007
Grand Isle120101975
Newbury 2120232008
Stowe120221988

Ruby-throated Hummingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.