BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Virginia

All statesGeneralists

Cedar Waxwing in Virginia has surged: up 337% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+337%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
82Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cedar Waxwing Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cedar Waxwing has surged in Virginia: up 337% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Cedar Waxwing Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Virginia is projected to rise about 76% by 2029 — from 2.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.4 (95% range 2.7–6.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+76%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.7–6.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Virginia is projected to rise about 76% by 2029 — from 2.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.4 (95% range 2.7–6.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.12.45.8
20264.22.55.9
20274.32.66.0
20284.32.66.0
20294.42.76.1

Cedar Waxwing Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Cedar Waxwing in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Natural Brid1620241988
Appomattox1520162000
Brodnax1420231985
Big Meadows1420241993
Great Falls1219681967
Blacksburg1120241988
Hebron1020221982
Shenandoa Np920241993
Surry820211994
Iron Mountain 2820132012
Mannboro720231993
White Stone720231986
Pungo720241993
Hebron 2720242023
Front Royal720241993
Iron Mountain 3720232015
Port Royal520191986
Wylliesburg520161993
Branchville520242011
Truhart520241997
Edinburg420241971
Hall420231987
Marion419821982
Dryden420051991
Potts Mtn.420131993

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.