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Species · Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Virginia

All statesForest birds

Cedar Waxwing in Virginia has surged: up 429% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+429%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
82Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cedar Waxwing Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cedar Waxwing has surged in Virginia: up 429% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Cedar Waxwing Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Virginia is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 4.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.5 (95% range 2.8–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+11%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.8–6.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±48.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Virginia is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 4.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.5 (95% range 2.8–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.22.55.9
20274.22.65.9
20284.32.66.0
20294.42.76.1
20304.52.86.2

Cedar Waxwing Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Cedar Waxwing in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Blacksburg2620251988
Fincastle1820251971
Appomattox1520162000
Hebron 21520252023
Brodnax1420231985
Great Falls1219681967
Mannboro1120251993
Hebron1020221982
Putnam920251969
Big Meadows920251993
W Augusta820251967
Tryme820251978
Brandy Station820252018
Front Royal820251993
Iron Mountain 2820132012
Big Island720251980
New Market720252009
Iron Mountain 3720232015
Nat Tunnel620251981
Edinburg520251971
Port Royal520191986
Amherst520251988
Wylliesburg520161993
Branchville520242011
Pungo520251993

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.