BirdAnalyst
Species · Vermont · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Vermont

All statesForest birds

Cedar Waxwing in Vermont has surged: up 124% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+124%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cedar Waxwing Trends in VermontNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cedar Waxwing has surged in Vermont: up 124% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Cedar Waxwing Population Forecast in Vermont

If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Vermont is projected to fall about 17% by 2030 — from 14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 2.7–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±104.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-17%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.7–2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±104.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Vermont is projected to fall about 17% by 2030 — from 14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 2.7–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±104.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026122.521
2027122.521
2028122.621
2029122.621
2030122.721

Cedar Waxwing Survey Routes in Vermont

Routes recording Cedar Waxwing in Vermont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bristol4820251995
Fletcher4720251968
Gaysville3620251966
Northfld Fls2220251980
Hinesburg2219941966
Greensboro2120251969
Waterville1819801968
Stowe1820241988
North Pownal1520251966
East Haven1220251966
East Calais1220251966
Middlesex1020251968
Landgrove920251966
Newbury920041986
S Wallingfrd720221967
Stratton620251966
Shaftsbury520251966
W Rutland520251966
Newbury 2520182005
Marlboro420251966
St Johnsbury420251970
Colchester420251986
Hardwick220241966
S Reading120231966
Post Mills120191966

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.