BirdAnalyst
Species · California · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in California

All statesForest birds

Cedar Waxwing in California has edged down: down 18% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-18%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
45Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cedar Waxwing Trends in CaliforniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cedar Waxwing in California. See the full index history below.

Cedar Waxwing Population Forecast in California

If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in California is projected to fall about 45% by 2030 — from 0.66 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.36 (95% range 0.00–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-45%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.36Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in California is projected to fall about 45% by 2030 — from 0.66 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.36 (95% range 0.00–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.360.001.0
20270.360.001.0
20280.360.001.0
20290.360.001.0
20300.360.001.0

Cedar Waxwing Survey Routes in California

Routes recording Cedar Waxwing in California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Crescent Cty3520251972
Gold Hill3020102001
Iron Gate2420101988
Yolla Bolly2420022002
Calpella2019681968
Orange Cove2019891989
Fairfax2019901986
Dorris1520122010
Santa Ynez1220022002
Red Bluff1120251970
Longvale1020212021
Orleans919871981
Lone Pine820232023
Horse Creek620151972
Likely620251990
Auburn519771977
Rio Dell520111972
Bodega Bay420161976
Glen Ellen419911976
Nubieber320041998
Holmes320251978
Mccloud320212021
Alderpoint319921984
Genesee320231998
Laytonville319731973

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.