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Species · Maryland · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Maryland

All statesForest birds

Cedar Waxwing in Maryland has surged: up 29× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

29×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
74Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cedar Waxwing Trends in MarylandNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cedar Waxwing has surged in Maryland: up 29× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Cedar Waxwing Population Forecast in Maryland

If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Maryland is projected to fall about 38% by 2030 — from 21 in 2025 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 8.5–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-38%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.5–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Maryland is projected to fall about 38% by 2030 — from 21 in 2025 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 8.5–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026127.616
2027127.816
2028128.017
2029138.317
2030138.517

Cedar Waxwing Survey Routes in Maryland

Routes recording Cedar Waxwing in Maryland.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cokesbury39020251988
Ijamsville6020251986
Emmitsburg5520251984
Williamsport4620251966
Olney3820251968
Finzel3120251995
Jennings2720251995
Wheaton2320251991
Smithsburg2020141976
Harmony2020172000
Earlton1820242014
Madonna1520222009
Warfieldsbrg1420251984
Island Creek1320251991
Mt Nebo1119911970
Tall Timbers1120141996
Piney Grove1020251995
Van Bibber920131967
St. George'S Island920172015
Madison820251984
Easton720251996
Jessup720252013
Pomonkey620251973
Melitota620231984
Mardela620191976

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.