BirdAnalyst
Species · Maryland · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Maryland

All statesGeneralists

Cedar Waxwing in Maryland has surged: up 20× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

20×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
74Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cedar Waxwing Trends in MarylandNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cedar Waxwing has surged in Maryland: up 20× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Cedar Waxwing Population Forecast in Maryland

If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Maryland is projected to rise about 40% by 2029 — from 8.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 8.3–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+40%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.3–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Maryland is projected to rise about 40% by 2029 — from 8.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 8.3–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025117.414
2026117.615
2027117.815
2028128.115
2029128.315

Cedar Waxwing Survey Routes in Maryland

Routes recording Cedar Waxwing in Maryland.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Finzel6020241995
Emmitsburg4120241984
Jennings3720241995
Pr Frederick2820231991
Cokesbury2720241988
Williamsport2520241966
Olney2520241968
Ijamsville2120241986
Smithsburg2020141976
Harmony2020172000
Earlton1820242014
Madonna1520222009
Wheaton1220241991
Island Creek1220241991
Mt Nebo1119911970
Tall Timbers1120141996
Piney Neck1020241989
Van Bibber920131967
Vienna920171990
St. George'S Island920172015
Oldtown820241971
Pomonkey820231973
Piney Grove720241995
Melitota620231984
Mardela620191976

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.