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Species · Alaska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Alaska

All statesForest birds

Cedar Waxwing in Alaska has declined: down 34% on the route-weighted index since 2002.

-34%Since 2002TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
23YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cedar Waxwing Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cedar Waxwing in Alaska. See the full index history below.

Cedar Waxwing Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Alaska is projected to rise about 46% by 2030 — from 0.05 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±71.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+46%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.08Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±71.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Alaska is projected to rise about 46% by 2030 — from 0.05 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±71.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19912030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.080.000.24
20270.080.000.24
20280.080.000.24
20290.080.000.23
20300.080.000.23

Cedar Waxwing Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Cedar Waxwing in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sitka1620122012
Ketchikan820221991
Craig620232023
Zarembo420172003
Yakutat320252025
Zimovia Strt220232002
Chichagof Is220222022
Whale Pass220242019
Skagway120092006
Stikine River120222001
Thorne Bay 2120232016

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.