BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Utah

All statesGeneralists

Cedar Waxwing in Utah has edged up: up 24% on the route-weighted index since 1994.

+24%Since 1994TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
32YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cedar Waxwing Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cedar Waxwing in Utah. See the full index history below.

Cedar Waxwing Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Utah is projected to rise about 61% by 2029 — from 0.20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.33 (95% range 0.02–0.64). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+61%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.33Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.02–0.6495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Utah is projected to rise about 61% by 2029 — from 0.20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.33 (95% range 0.02–0.64). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19772029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.320.010.63
20260.320.010.63
20270.320.010.63
20280.320.010.64
20290.330.020.64

Cedar Waxwing Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Cedar Waxwing in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ferron1320072007
Ant Flat-Ogden Can1320231994
Hardware Ranch920231994
Logan Canyon720191999
Altonah620072001
Kamas520241997
Woodruff320242023
Moon Lake320012001
Jericho Junction319971997
Heber Mtn.320132013
Hyrum219781978
Lost Cr. Res220171999
Saleratus Cr220072007
Oak City220111994
Beaver220242002
Hanna220241997
Beck119771977
Gooseberry120231996
Newcastle120102010
Jensen120062006

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.