BirdAnalyst
Species · Delaware · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Delaware

All statesGeneralists

Cedar Waxwing in Delaware has surged: up 96% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

+96%Since 1983TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
42YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cedar Waxwing Trends in DelawareNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cedar Waxwing has surged in Delaware: up 96% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

Cedar Waxwing Population Forecast in Delaware

If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Delaware is projected to rise about 137% by 2029 — from 3.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.6 (95% range 2.4–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±195.7%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+137%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.4–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±195.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Delaware is projected to rise about 137% by 2029 — from 3.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.6 (95% range 2.4–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±195.7%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.11.912
20267.22.012
20277.42.113
20287.52.313
20297.62.413

Cedar Waxwing Survey Routes in Delaware

Routes recording Cedar Waxwing in Delaware.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Holleyville1620041984
Wilmington1120141984
Milton 2820172017
Frankford620121997
Blackbird620241994
Harrington520241992
Frederica520141988
Mt Pleasant420191971
Dover419861986
Holleyville 2420242006
Milton220161987
Georgetown220191992
Lowes Xrds119911991
Bethany Bch119891986
Millsboro120212017
Pepperbox120161999
Pepperbox 2120242017

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutgeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.