BirdAnalyst
Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesGeneralists

Cedar Waxwing in Pennsylvania has surged: up 348% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+348%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
135Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cedar Waxwing Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cedar Waxwing has surged in Pennsylvania: up 348% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Cedar Waxwing Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Pennsylvania is projected to rise about 54% by 2029 — from 10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 11–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+54%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
11–2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±56%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Pennsylvania is projected to rise about 54% by 2029 — from 10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 11–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025151020
2026151021
2027161021
2028161121
2029161121

Cedar Waxwing Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording Cedar Waxwing in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Roulette 27320242022
Harmonsburg5520231966
Roulette4720211970
Lynch4220241968
Betula4020221973
Munson3720241980
N Pine Grove3320241969
Ltl Pine Cr3320241990
Ridgway3220181966
Rosecrans2920241969
Poyntelle2820241973
Honesdale2720241972
Plesant Grov2620241969
Eldred2520221973
Rasselas2420221969
Canadensis2320241970
Geeseytown2120241987
West Grove2119961977
Ferris Crnrs2020241968
Arnot1920241970
Big Flat1919811976
Brunnerville 21920242010
Mifflintown1820241966
Jefferson1820241966
Little Marsh1720241967

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonrhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.