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Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesForest birds

Cedar Waxwing in Pennsylvania has surged: up 339% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+339%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
135Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cedar Waxwing Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cedar Waxwing has surged in Pennsylvania: up 339% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Cedar Waxwing Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Pennsylvania is projected to rise about 79% by 2030 — from 8.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 10–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+79%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
10–2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±67%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Pennsylvania is projected to rise about 79% by 2030 — from 8.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 10–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026159.620
2027159.720
2028159.921
2029151021
2030161021

Cedar Waxwing Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording Cedar Waxwing in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Geeseytown8020251987
Roulette4720211970
Betula4020221973
Ridgway3220181966
Harmonsburg3120251966
Munson2920251980
Beaver2820251977
Plesant Grov2620241969
Eldred2520221973
Rasselas2420221969
Honesdale2120251972
West Grove2119961977
Martinsburg2020251972
Big Flat1919811976
Little Marsh1720241967
Hop Bottom1720251967
New Ringgold1720251966
Brunnerville 21720252010
Arnot1620251970
Rosecrans1620251969
Peru Mills1620251976
Drehersville 21620252000
Berwick1620251985
Espyville1520251967
Bow Bridge1520251969

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonrhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.