BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Missouri

All statesGeneralists

Cedar Waxwing in Missouri has surged: up 81% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

+81%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
77Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cedar Waxwing Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cedar Waxwing has surged in Missouri: up 81% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

Cedar Waxwing Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Missouri is projected to rise about 94% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.79–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+94%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.79–3.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±43%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Missouri is projected to rise about 94% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.79–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.90.673.1
20261.90.703.2
20272.00.733.2
20282.00.763.2
20292.00.793.3

Cedar Waxwing Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Cedar Waxwing in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mcfall3420241994
Laclede3020231994
Reeds2820191990
Lincoln1520222022
Stet919861986
Union919981998
Kahoka2820242002
Palace820162016
Sweden620171996
Hayden620191988
Mincy620182018
Syracuse520161991
Bland520192005
New Hampton520232014
Auburn520232014
Crane419971997
Barks420241994
Kirksville420241994
Huntsville320241986
Rockingham320221990
Osage Beach320221997
Kearney320242000
Kingsville320232005
Watson320212003
Elmo320232019

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.