BirdAnalyst
Species · Colorado · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Colorado

All statesForest birds

Cedar Waxwing in Colorado has surged: up 315% on the route-weighted index since 1993.

+315%Since 1993TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
33YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cedar Waxwing Trends in ColoradoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cedar Waxwing in Colorado. See the full index history below.

Cedar Waxwing Population Forecast in Colorado

If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Colorado is projected to rise about 30% by 2030 — from 0.14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.08–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+30%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.18Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.08–0.2895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Colorado is projected to rise about 30% by 2030 — from 0.14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.08–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19862030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.160.060.26
20270.170.070.27
20280.170.070.27
20290.180.080.28
20300.180.080.28

Cedar Waxwing Survey Routes in Colorado

Routes recording Cedar Waxwing in Colorado.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ninaview520162016
Cheesman Lk420252007
Cortez 2420172017
Dolores Riv420051999
Paonia420232014
Nucla420212021
Aspen320251993
Parlin319971997
Animas 2320252005
Ragged Mtn.320191998
De Beque320102010
Thomasville320252001
Yellowjacket Pass320162016
Blackhead Pk320142014
Yampa220232008
Buford220222002
Rosevale220112009
Summitville220152015
Walsenburg220242008
Dunckley Pas220242001
Ludlow219991999
Harmony120241996
Delta119861986
Colona120032003
Falfa119981992

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.