BirdAnalyst
Species · Colorado · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Colorado

All statesGeneralists

Cedar Waxwing in Colorado has surged: up 371% on the route-weighted index since 1993.

+371%Since 1993TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
32YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cedar Waxwing Trends in ColoradoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cedar Waxwing has surged in Colorado: up 371% on the route-weighted index since 1993.

Cedar Waxwing Population Forecast in Colorado

If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Colorado is projected to rise about 75% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.08–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+75%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.18Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.08–0.2895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Colorado is projected to rise about 75% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.08–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19862029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.160.060.26
20260.170.060.27
20270.170.070.27
20280.170.070.28
20290.180.080.28

Cedar Waxwing Survey Routes in Colorado

Routes recording Cedar Waxwing in Colorado.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ninaview520162016
Cortez 2420172017
Dolores Riv420051999
Paonia420232014
Nucla420212021
Parlin319971997
Ragged Mtn.320191998
De Beque320102010
Yellowjacket Pass320162016
Blackhead Pk320142014
Yampa220232008
Buford220222002
Aspen220241993
Rosevale220112009
Summitville220152015
Walsenburg220242008
Dunckley Pas220242001
Deadman Rd.220242024
Ludlow219991999
Harmony120241996
Cheesman Lk120072007
Delta119861986
Colona120032003
Falfa119981992
Animas 2120182005

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.