BirdAnalyst
Species · Tennessee · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesGeneralists

Cedar Waxwing in Tennessee has surged: up 822% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+822%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
46Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cedar Waxwing Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cedar Waxwing has surged in Tennessee: up 822% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Cedar Waxwing Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Tennessee is projected to rise about 567% by 2029 — from 0.41 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 0.68–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±181.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+567%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.68–4.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±181.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Tennessee is projected to rise about 567% by 2029 — from 0.41 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 0.68–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±181.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.60.534.6
20262.60.564.7
20272.70.604.7
20282.70.644.7
20292.70.684.8

Cedar Waxwing Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Cedar Waxwing in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cornpone1420231991
Walland1119891969
Oliver Spgs920221966
Sweetlips720031987
Trenton720052002
Mecca620232000
Lovell620191984
Tullahoma520141997
Willis Sprng420142014
White House420081997
Peytonsville420231993
Glen420221988
Jasper420241985
Smokey Jct420211968
Jefferson Cty420061971
Fish Springs420221967
Whiteville320032003
Big Sandy320231984
Harbuck320231999
Campbellsville320141996
Bradyville320031997
Signal Mtn220231993
Tiptonville220131996
Jones Gap220192001
Moscow220222004

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.