BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesGeneralists

Cedar Waxwing in Nebraska has surged: up 389% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

+389%Since 1982TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
47Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
40YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cedar Waxwing Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cedar Waxwing has surged in Nebraska: up 389% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

Cedar Waxwing Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Nebraska is projected to rise about 120% by 2029 — from 0.46 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.31–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+120%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.31–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±58.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Nebraska is projected to rise about 120% by 2029 — from 0.46 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.31–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19792029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.930.231.6
20260.950.251.7
20270.970.271.7
20280.990.291.7
20291.00.311.7

Cedar Waxwing Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Cedar Waxwing in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Berea1320112011
Gordon919821982
Chambers720232023
Lyons720242024
Belvidere620222002
Crookston520242018
Stratton420152003
Gretna420171990
Irvington420211989
Paxton420162007
Table420152015
Brady420181996
Nenzel420222019
Almeria320211987
Liberty220011993
Seward220222000
Kearney220241998
Pine Ridge220112000
Richland220242006
Petersburg220162001
Thurston220221989
Sparta220162003
Swan Lake220232014
Crawford220001995
Bassett220222018

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.