BirdAnalyst
Species · South Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in South Carolina

All statesForest birds

Cedar Waxwing in South Carolina has surged: up 98% on the route-weighted index since 1990.

+98%Since 1990TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
27YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cedar Waxwing Trends in South CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cedar Waxwing has surged in South Carolina: up 98% on the route-weighted index since 1990.

Cedar Waxwing Population Forecast in South Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in South Carolina is projected to fall about 31% by 2030 — from 0.46 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.32 (95% range 0.00–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-31%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.32Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±43.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in South Carolina is projected to fall about 31% by 2030 — from 0.46 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.32 (95% range 0.00–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19732030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.320.001.0
20270.320.001.0
20280.320.001.0
20290.320.001.0
20300.320.001.0

Cedar Waxwing Survey Routes in South Carolina

Routes recording Cedar Waxwing in South Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Chesnee4920022002
Mount Pisgah620252025
Bishopville520121990
Battlecreek520252002
Salem420232010
Coward220252025
Barton Creek220141993
Blacksburg219991999
Landrum219861986
Bennettsville220102008
Anderson220101991
Campobello220212010
Little Mtn119731973
Prosperity120232023

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.