BirdAnalyst
Species · Washington · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Washington

All statesGeneralists

Cedar Waxwing in Washington has declined: down 39% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-39%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
95Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cedar Waxwing Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cedar Waxwing in Washington. See the full index history below.

Cedar Waxwing Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Washington is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 7.5 (95% range 3.5–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+6%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.5–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Washington is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 7.5 (95% range 3.5–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.53.512
20267.53.512
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20297.53.512

Cedar Waxwing Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording Cedar Waxwing in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Newhalem4820241968
Neilton3419751975
Vashon Is.3420241995
Warm Beach3320171968
Port Angeles3120241970
Twisp2820241969
Raymond2820211993
Laurier2620221997
Carnation2620241988
Cougar2520231968
Kendall2520241981
South Elma2520241975
Nighthawk2320221992
Leavenworth2220241981
Scootney Reservoir2120212012
Warm Beach 21720242018
Chewelah1420211977
Issaquah1319871969
Rainier1320191994
Mendota 31320242005
Rimrock1220231969
Everett1220241975
Suiattle Riv1220191993
Mendota 21220001989
Raymond 21220242022

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.