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Species · Washington · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Washington

All statesForest birds

Cedar Waxwing in Washington has declined: down 41% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-41%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
96Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cedar Waxwing Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cedar Waxwing in Washington. See the full index history below.

Cedar Waxwing Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Washington is projected to fall about 11% by 2030 — from 8.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.6 (95% range 3.6–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-11%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.6–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Washington is projected to fall about 11% by 2030 — from 8.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.6 (95% range 3.6–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
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Cedar Waxwing Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording Cedar Waxwing in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Newhalem10320251968
Kendall3420251981
Neilton3419751975
Warm Beach3320171968
Twisp2820241969
Raymond2820211993
Port Angeles2620251970
Bunker Hill2620251968
Cougar2520231968
South Elma2520241975
Carnation2520251988
Leavenworth2220241981
Scootney Reservoir2120212012
Vashon Is.1920251995
Rainier1820251994
Yakima1720251993
Warm Beach 21720242018
Everett1620251975
Chewelah1420211977
Issaquah1319871969
Ilwaco1320251975
Suiattle Riv1220191993
Mendota 21220001989
Raymond 21220242022
Sullivan Lake 21120252002

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.