BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesGeneralists

Cedar Waxwing in South Dakota has surged: up 582% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

+582%Since 1980TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
35YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cedar Waxwing Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cedar Waxwing has surged in South Dakota: up 582% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

Cedar Waxwing Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in South Dakota is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 0.59 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.52 (95% range 0.04–0.99). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±359.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.52Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.9995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±359.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in South Dakota is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 0.59 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.52 (95% range 0.04–0.99). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±359.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.480.010.95
20260.490.020.96
20270.500.030.97
20280.510.040.98
20290.520.040.99

Cedar Waxwing Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Cedar Waxwing in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wind Cave Np920231999
Turton620172017
Howard320241994
Winner320172016
Volga320242008
Raymond320131983
Ft Thompson320022002
Wilmot320241997
Hazelrodt320162016
Rosebud220092009
Roswell220141994
Britton220181985
Volunteer220032003
Fort Pierre220152004
Gorman219801980
Reva220241993
Ardmore219961996
Hill City220072007
Black Fox220122012
Englewood220112011
Long Draw220242011
Rochford220092002
Lennox120152003
Tripp120141968
Geddes120222004

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.