BirdAnalyst
Species · New Jersey · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in New Jersey

All statesGeneralists

Cedar Waxwing in New Jersey has surged: up 30× on the route-weighted index since 1972.

30×Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
38Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cedar Waxwing Trends in New JerseyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cedar Waxwing has surged in New Jersey: up 30× on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Cedar Waxwing Population Forecast in New Jersey

If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in New Jersey is projected to rise about 114% by 2029 — from 5.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 7.3–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±86.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+114%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.3–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±86.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in New Jersey is projected to rise about 114% by 2029 — from 5.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 7.3–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±86.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025116.416
2026116.716
2027126.916
2028127.117
2029127.317

Cedar Waxwing Survey Routes in New Jersey

Routes recording Cedar Waxwing in New Jersey.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Holmansville2320091990
Toms River1920241994
Cranbury1920241988
Pomona1820241978
Pedricktown1520121991
Winslow1520241989
Cape May Ch1320131992
Spraguetown 21220072000
Keyport1220191990
Dover1020231979
Midvale920221972
Hope819941976
Spraguetown 3820242023
Friendship720241981
Woodbury Hgt620241988
Croton620071983
Albion520221988
Sandbrook520231983
Kemah Lake520241971
Ocean City520152015
Del Haven419911991
Bloomsbury420241976
Spraguetown419931977
Bennett Mill 2420242016
Six Points320221988

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.