BirdAnalyst
Species · Rhode Island · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Rhode Island

All statesForest birds

Cedar Waxwing in Rhode Island has surged: up 16× on the route-weighted index since 1973.

16×Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
42YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cedar Waxwing Trends in Rhode IslandNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cedar Waxwing has surged in Rhode Island: up 16× on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Cedar Waxwing Population Forecast in Rhode Island

If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Rhode Island is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 1.4–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±196.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.4–2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±196.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Rhode Island is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 1.4–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±196.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026100.7320
2027100.9120
2028101.120
2029111.320
2030111.420

Cedar Waxwing Survey Routes in Rhode Island

Routes recording Cedar Waxwing in Rhode Island.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Casimir Pulaski Sf3520182016
Block Island2220251987
Wallum Lake1520251975
Quonset Pt820251973
Shannock620251978
Sachuest Pt119771967

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.