BirdAnalyst
Species · Wyoming · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Wyoming

All statesGeneralists

Cedar Waxwing in Wyoming has surged: up 134% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

+134%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
40Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cedar Waxwing Trends in WyomingNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cedar Waxwing has surged in Wyoming: up 134% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Cedar Waxwing Population Forecast in Wyoming

If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Wyoming is projected to fall about 31% by 2029 — from 0.52 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.36 (95% range 0.11–0.61). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-31%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.36Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.11–0.6195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Wyoming is projected to fall about 31% by 2029 — from 0.52 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.36 (95% range 0.11–0.61). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.340.090.59
20260.340.100.59
20270.350.100.60
20280.350.100.60
20290.360.110.61

Cedar Waxwing Survey Routes in Wyoming

Routes recording Cedar Waxwing in Wyoming.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Meeteetse1020241999
Wilson1020241979
Gvnt Valley820121999
Wyarno619931993
Seely519991992
Kaycee520222022
Basin420241971
Mammoth420232003
Hunter Peak420241989
Tensleep420222011
Dayton420241989
Upton420242024
Colter Bay319981997
Moskee320011982
Fletcher Pk320241984
Moskee 2320192004
Cody220011988
Midvale219961996
Fontenelle219921992
Alpine220211992
Ethete220241993
Mtn View220242021
Otto120231972
Sundance120241994
Dubois120181984

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.