BirdAnalyst
Species · Wisconsin · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Wisconsin

All statesForest birds

Cedar Waxwing in Wisconsin has increased: up 47% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+47%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
98Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cedar Waxwing Trends in WisconsinNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cedar Waxwing in Wisconsin. See the full index history below.

Cedar Waxwing Population Forecast in Wisconsin

If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Wisconsin is projected to rise about 22% by 2030 — from 8.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 6.2–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+22%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.2–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Wisconsin is projected to rise about 22% by 2030 — from 8.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 6.2–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20269.96.014
2027106.014
2028106.114
2029106.114
2030106.214

Cedar Waxwing Survey Routes in Wisconsin

Routes recording Cedar Waxwing in Wisconsin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Washington I3920251967
Casco3220251966
Rhinelander3020211998
Kiel2920251998
Land O Lakes2620161967
Paris2620251968
River Falls2520251998
Fall River2220251969
Mukwonago 22220252005
Merrill2120251966
Omro2120011966
Flambeau2120251998
Mukwonago2120041998
New Lisbon2020251967
Loraine1920251966
Wiota1920251966
Hebron1920251966
Bashaw1820251999
Iron River1720251968
N Freedom1720251967
Pardeeville1720251969
Hatfield1619981970
Saxeville1620241977
Bayfield1420251967
Union Twp1420241966

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.