BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesGeneralists

Cedar Waxwing in North Carolina has surged: up 310% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+310%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cedar Waxwing Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cedar Waxwing has surged in North Carolina: up 310% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Cedar Waxwing Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in North Carolina is projected to rise about 74% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 1.8–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+74%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.8–4.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±62.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in North Carolina is projected to rise about 74% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 1.8–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.71.63.8
20262.81.63.9
20272.81.73.9
20282.91.74.0
20292.91.84.0

Cedar Waxwing Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Cedar Waxwing in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Monticello3020211990
Sturgills1720242003
Cullowhee1520241974
Hendersonvil1320241996
Linville1120241976
French Broad River1020242001
Call920231977
Mooresville820011986
Busick819991994
Brevard720241971
Jarvisburg 2720212000
Biscoe720051991
Mount Airy720242005
Rose620061991
Oakboro620222008
Table Rock620221994
Sawmill620241990
Arcola520231989
Flay520231995
N. Mills Riv419951994
Copeland420241970
Pinelog420192001
Ostwalt420232021
Shallotte319911991
Rheasville320172011

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.