BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesForest birds

Cedar Waxwing in North Carolina has surged: up 319% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+319%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
78Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cedar Waxwing Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cedar Waxwing has surged in North Carolina: up 319% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Cedar Waxwing Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in North Carolina is projected to rise about 84% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 1.7–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+84%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.7–4.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±61.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in North Carolina is projected to rise about 84% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 1.7–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.71.53.8
20272.71.63.9
20282.81.63.9
20292.81.74.0
20302.91.74.0

Cedar Waxwing Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Cedar Waxwing in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Monticello3020211990
Cullowhee1120251974
Jarvisburg 21020252000
Jamesville920251993
Mooresville820011986
French Broad River820252001
Busick819991994
Biscoe720051991
Mount Airy720242005
Rose620061991
Oakboro620222008
Sawmill620241990
Todd620251995
Table Rock620221994
Arcola520231989
California 2520252014
Fairview520252005
Sheep Ridge520252002
Broad Creek520252011
Brevard420251971
Copeland420241970
N. Mills Riv419951994
Shallotte319911991
Mattamuskeet320172017
Sheffield320241991

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.