BirdAnalyst
Species · Idaho · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Idaho

All statesForest birds

Cedar Waxwing in Idaho has surged: up 115% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+115%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
47Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cedar Waxwing Trends in IdahoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cedar Waxwing has surged in Idaho: up 115% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Cedar Waxwing Population Forecast in Idaho

If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Idaho is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.9 (95% range 0.45–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+2%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.45–3.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±64.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Idaho is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.9 (95% range 0.45–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.80.383.2
20271.80.403.3
20281.80.423.3
20291.90.443.3
20301.90.453.3

Cedar Waxwing Survey Routes in Idaho

Routes recording Cedar Waxwing in Idaho.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Blacks Creek3119821982
Mud Lake2020212008
Magic Mtn1420251997
Naples1120251972
Salmon River1020251988
Cascade919841983
Nezperce820121968
Challis820251996
Golden720151989
Centerville720251982
Coolin620251986
Crane Creek620192000
Picabo620152015
Baker520231975
Triangle520211990
Bates520191992
Gifford420171986
Lolo Pass420031994
Rochat Divde420241995
Preston420211991
Craters319931993
Baldy Mountain320132013
Joel320221990
Mivoden220151992
Avery220181991

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.