BirdAnalyst
Species · Idaho · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Idaho

All statesGeneralists

Cedar Waxwing in Idaho has risen sharply: up 68% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+68%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
47Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cedar Waxwing Trends in IdahoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cedar Waxwing has risen sharply in Idaho: up 68% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Cedar Waxwing Population Forecast in Idaho

If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Idaho is projected to rise about 122% by 2029 — from 0.84 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.41–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±75.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+122%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.41–3.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±75.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Idaho is projected to rise about 122% by 2029 — from 0.84 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.41–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±75.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.80.333.2
20261.80.353.3
20271.80.373.3
20281.80.393.3
20291.90.413.3

Cedar Waxwing Survey Routes in Idaho

Routes recording Cedar Waxwing in Idaho.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Blacks Creek3119821982
Mud Lake2020212008
Naples1320241972
Cascade919841983
Featherville920211989
Nezperce820121968
Golden720151989
Salmon River620211988
Crane Creek620192000
Picabo620152015
Baker520231975
Triangle520211990
Cobalt520151994
Bates520191992
Daniels Res519981998
Gifford420171986
Lolo Pass420031994
Centerville420191982
Magic Mtn420241997
Preston420211991
Challis320241996
Craters319931993
Baldy Mountain320132013
Marble Creek320221988
Joel320221990

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.