BirdAnalyst
Species · Illinois · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Illinois

All statesGeneralists

Cedar Waxwing in Illinois has surged: up 633% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+633%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
105Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cedar Waxwing Trends in IllinoisNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cedar Waxwing has surged in Illinois: up 633% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Cedar Waxwing Population Forecast in Illinois

If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Illinois is projected to rise about 123% by 2029 — from 2.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.7 (95% range 3.7–7.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67.1%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+123%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.7–7.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±67.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Illinois is projected to rise about 123% by 2029 — from 2.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.7 (95% range 3.7–7.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67.1%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.33.47.3
20265.43.57.4
20275.53.57.5
20285.63.67.6
20295.73.77.7

Cedar Waxwing Survey Routes in Illinois

Routes recording Cedar Waxwing in Illinois.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wayne3420241974
Caledonia2620241993
Union2620172001
Barrington2420111967
Marshall2220232010
Cherry Val2120031973
York2120231994
Itasca1720241977
Cherry Val 21720182004
Mascoutah Lk1420211971
Camp Point1320231993
New Lenox1220191968
Birds1120221980
Alden1120232019
Belleview1020241985
Martinsville1020211974
St Morgan920221984
Beaucoup920221995
Terre Haute720241966
Cave In Rock720241993
Eubanks720222001
Guilford620221974
Geneseo620181973
Bartonville620231979
Duncan Mills620241993

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.