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Species · Illinois · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Illinois

All statesForest birds

Cedar Waxwing in Illinois has surged: up 726% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+726%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
105Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cedar Waxwing Trends in IllinoisNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cedar Waxwing has surged in Illinois: up 725% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Cedar Waxwing Population Forecast in Illinois

If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Illinois is projected to rise about 34% by 2030 — from 4.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.7 (95% range 3.7–7.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+34%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.7–7.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±57.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Illinois is projected to rise about 34% by 2030 — from 4.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.7 (95% range 3.7–7.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.33.47.3
20275.43.57.4
20285.53.57.5
20295.63.67.6
20305.73.77.7

Cedar Waxwing Survey Routes in Illinois

Routes recording Cedar Waxwing in Illinois.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
York2920251994
Union2620172001
Barrington2420111967
Belleview2320251985
Cherry Val2120031973
Compton2020251982
Wayne1920251974
Cherry Val 21720182004
Mascoutah Lk1420211971
Geneseo1220251973
New Lenox1220191968
Holcomb1120251978
Birds1120221980
Martinsville1020211974
Williamsfld920251977
St Morgan920221984
Beaucoup920221995
Sherrard920251993
Lake Summerset920252001
Clayton920252001
Gulfport820251986
Bradbury820251982
Darmstadt820252003
Terre Haute720251966
Delwood720251982

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.