BirdAnalyst
Species · Ohio · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Ohio

All statesGeneralists

Cedar Waxwing in Ohio has surged: up 372% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+372%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cedar Waxwing Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cedar Waxwing has surged in Ohio: up 372% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Cedar Waxwing Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Ohio is projected to rise about 63% by 2029 — from 5.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.4 (95% range 6.0–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+63%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.0–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±47.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Ohio is projected to rise about 63% by 2029 — from 5.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.4 (95% range 6.0–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20259.05.612
20269.15.712
20279.25.813
20289.35.913
20299.46.013

Cedar Waxwing Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Cedar Waxwing in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Garrettsvile3519911969
Stonecreek3220241996
Kenton3020131971
New Somerset2419931966
Wayne N.F.2220211992
Fulton2020241967
Harveysburg1919961967
Dell1920191993
Hiram1920211992
Omega1720241971
Vickery1620242002
Smithfield1520241972
Lockport1320241973
Dunlap1319881967
Scioto Furn1320131998
Valley City1320241995
Strongsville1219901966
N Baltimore920181969
Lucerne920241992
Darrtown920211970
Ashley920181988
Bismark819951969
Dresden820241973
Hebron820241967
Limestone820241987

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.