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Species · Ohio · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Ohio

All statesForest birds

Cedar Waxwing in Ohio has surged: up 365% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+365%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
89Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cedar Waxwing Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cedar Waxwing has surged in Ohio: up 365% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Cedar Waxwing Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Ohio is projected to rise about 71% by 2030 — from 5.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 9.2 (95% range 5.7–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+71%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.7–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±52.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Ohio is projected to rise about 71% by 2030 — from 5.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 9.2 (95% range 5.7–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20268.85.412
20278.95.412
20289.05.512
20299.15.613
20309.25.713

Cedar Waxwing Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Cedar Waxwing in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Garrettsvile3519911969
Smithfield2720251972
Stonecreek2620251996
New Somerset2419931966
Harveysburg1919961967
Dell1920191993
Omega1720241971
Vickery1620242002
Dunlap1319881967
Scioto Furn1320131998
Strongsville1219901966
Lockport1020251973
Kalida1020251966
Fulton1020251967
Hebron1020251967
Mohican S.F.1020251992
N Baltimore920181969
Darrtown920211970
Ashley920181988
Bismark819951969
Lucerne820251992
Rome820251967
Birmingham820241988
Tick Ridge820191993
Wayland720171992

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.