BirdAnalyst
Species · West Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in West Virginia

All statesGeneralists

Cedar Waxwing in West Virginia has surged: up 172% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+172%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
63Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cedar Waxwing Trends in West VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cedar Waxwing has surged in West Virginia: up 172% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Cedar Waxwing Population Forecast in West Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in West Virginia is projected to rise about 101% by 2029 — from 5.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 7.8–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+101%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.8–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±46.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in West Virginia is projected to rise about 101% by 2029 — from 5.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 7.8–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025117.214
2026117.414
2027117.514
2028117.715
2029117.815

Cedar Waxwing Survey Routes in West Virginia

Routes recording Cedar Waxwing in West Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bismark10320211976
Clinton2420241966
Meadland2220231997
Valley Head2220241966
Ruthbelle1920241977
Sugar Grove1620231966
Mcdonald1520231987
Three Forks1420241971
Denmar1420241980
Yellow Spg1320231976
Bramwell1220231978
Washburn1220221976
Glade Run 21220242004
Josephs Mill1120241993
Sleepy Creek1119901969
Glade Run1120021991
Bemis1120242001
Shanghai1120221995
Rio1019951974
Welch920231980
Green Bank920241978
Smoot820211980
Pt Pleasant820231976
Bebee820241972
Wymer820151995

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.