BirdAnalyst
Species · West Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in West Virginia

All statesForest birds

Cedar Waxwing in West Virginia has surged: up 219% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+219%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cedar Waxwing Trends in West VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cedar Waxwing has surged in West Virginia: up 219% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Cedar Waxwing Population Forecast in West Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in West Virginia is projected to rise about 12% by 2030 — from 10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 8.0–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+12%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.0–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±46.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in West Virginia is projected to rise about 12% by 2030 — from 10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 8.0–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026117.314
2027117.514
2028117.614
2029117.815
2030118.015

Cedar Waxwing Survey Routes in West Virginia

Routes recording Cedar Waxwing in West Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pt Pleasant4520251976
Three Forks3020251971
Lost River2820251996
Bemis2620252001
Valley Head2420251966
Green Bank2020251978
Bismark2020251976
Richwood1920251981
Hubbardstown1820251994
Hix1620251970
Canaan1620251974
Mcdonald1520231987
Yellow Spg1320231976
Smoot1220251980
Welch1220251980
Bebee1220251972
Josephs Mill1120241993
Meadowville1120251974
Sleepy Creek1119901969
Glade Run1120021991
Hanover1020251980
Clear Creek1020251988
Sutton1020251976
Rio1019951974
Moundsville920251975

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.