BirdAnalyst
Species · Iowa · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Iowa

All statesForest birds

Cedar Waxwing in Iowa has surged: up 687% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+687%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
38Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cedar Waxwing Trends in IowaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cedar Waxwing has surged in Iowa: up 687% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Cedar Waxwing Population Forecast in Iowa

If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Iowa is projected to rise about 56% by 2030 — from 2.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.0 (95% range 1.7–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+56%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.7–6.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±58.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Iowa is projected to rise about 56% by 2030 — from 2.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.0 (95% range 1.7–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.71.56.0
20273.81.56.0
20283.81.66.1
20293.91.76.1
20304.01.76.2

Cedar Waxwing Survey Routes in Iowa

Routes recording Cedar Waxwing in Iowa.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Red Rock2320251969
West Liberty820251971
Clare820131977
Bryant720251975
Prairieburg720181990
Melrose620251977
Gaza620042004
Mccallsburg620251997
Exline520251988
Panther520251968
Washta520141994
Davis Corner520251982
Rock Valley519971993
College Spgs420041989
Neola419921992
Hudson420221970
Tipton420241993
Wales320251971
Kanawha320172017
Titonka319891986
College Spgs 2320252008
Mt Hamill220251968
Bedford220252001
Brooklyn220191985
Washington220231975

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.