BirdAnalyst
Species · Massachusetts · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Massachusetts

All statesGeneralists

Cedar Waxwing in Massachusetts has surged: up 289% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+289%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cedar Waxwing Trends in MassachusettsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cedar Waxwing has surged in Massachusetts: up 289% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Cedar Waxwing Population Forecast in Massachusetts

If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Massachusetts is projected to rise about 62% by 2029 — from 8.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 8.8–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+62%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.8–2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±42.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Massachusetts is projected to rise about 62% by 2029 — from 8.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 8.8–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025148.219
2026148.319
2027148.520
2028148.620
2029148.820

Cedar Waxwing Survey Routes in Massachusetts

Routes recording Cedar Waxwing in Massachusetts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pittsfield7120161971
Marion2820241969
Belchertown2820241967
Chesterfield2020241967
Brockton1820191970
Sheffield1820221969
Cape Cod Ns1820071989
Maynard1620221969
N Orange1620241968
Warren1520091968
E Pepperell1419941967
Cheshire1419941969
Prattville1020191966
Newburyport920221967
S Barre920241968
Holden820241977
Wellfleet 2720242016
Mansfield520241989
Chilmark419831969
Littleton420181967
Princeton419761969
Hancock420151997
E Dennis320191967
Wellfleet320051966
N Oxford320241968

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.