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Species · Massachusetts · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Massachusetts

All statesForest birds

Cedar Waxwing in Massachusetts has surged: up 315% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+315%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cedar Waxwing Trends in MassachusettsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cedar Waxwing has surged in Massachusetts: up 315% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Cedar Waxwing Population Forecast in Massachusetts

If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Massachusetts is projected to rise about 25% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 8.8–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+25%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.8–2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±48.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Massachusetts is projected to rise about 25% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 8.8–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026148.219
2027148.319
2028148.520
2029148.620
2030148.820

Cedar Waxwing Survey Routes in Massachusetts

Routes recording Cedar Waxwing in Massachusetts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pittsfield7120161971
Marion4320251969
Belchertown2520251967
S Barre2320251968
Maynard2120251969
Brockton1820191970
Sheffield1820221969
Cape Cod Ns1820071989
Wellfleet 21620252016
Warren1520091968
Holden1520251977
E Pepperell1419941967
Cheshire1419941969
Mansfield1320251989
Warren 21220252010
Prattville1020191966
Newburyport920221967
N Orange620251968
Chilmark419831969
Littleton420181967
Princeton419761969
Chesterfield420251967
Hancock420151997
E Dennis320191967
Wellfleet320051966

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.