BirdAnalyst
Species · Montana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Montana

All statesGeneralists

Cedar Waxwing in Montana has surged: up 560% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+560%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
82Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cedar Waxwing Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cedar Waxwing has surged in Montana: up 560% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Cedar Waxwing Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Montana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.3 (95% range 1.2–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+7%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–3.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±50.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Montana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.3 (95% range 1.2–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.21.13.2
20262.21.13.2
20272.21.23.3
20282.21.23.3
20292.31.23.3

Cedar Waxwing Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Cedar Waxwing in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
East Glacier Park5020242015
Savage2920131994
Thompson Riv2320241993
Highwood1720231969
Libby Dam1420241979
Woodman1020241971
Reed Point1020241977
Whitefish Lake1020242016
Chinook1020232015
St Regis920241979
Lindsay920232015
Clyde Park820242018
St. Mary 2720222009
Cabin Creek720232023
Church Hill720222019
Kalispell620241980
Brusett620231983
Clinton620241985
Painted Rock620221992
Noxon620232001
Great Falls520021986
Two Dot520142014
Ninemile520241993
Skalkaho519921992
Greenoagh 2520082005

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.