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Species · Montana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Montana

All statesForest birds

Cedar Waxwing in Montana has surged: up 499% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+499%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
82Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cedar Waxwing Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cedar Waxwing has surged in Montana: up 499% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Cedar Waxwing Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Montana is projected to rise about 61% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 1.2–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+61%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–3.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±49.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Montana is projected to rise about 61% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 1.2–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.11.13.2
20272.21.13.2
20282.21.13.3
20292.21.13.3
20302.21.23.3

Cedar Waxwing Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Cedar Waxwing in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Savage2920131994
Thompson Riv2320241993
Libby Dam1520251979
Clinton1120251985
Whitefish Lake1020242016
Kalispell920251980
Reed Point920251977
Lindsay920232015
Ninemile820251993
East Glacier Park820252015
Clyde Park820242018
Cabin Creek720232023
Brusett620231983
Painted Rock620221992
Noxon620232001
Great Falls520021986
Highwood520251969
Two Dot520142014
Skalkaho519921992
Miles City520252019
Church Hill520252019
Greenoagh 2520082005
St Regis420251979
Red Rock420241989
Pablo Res.420251996

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.