BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesGeneralists

Cedar Waxwing in Kentucky has surged: up 745% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+745%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
59Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cedar Waxwing Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cedar Waxwing has surged in Kentucky: up 745% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Cedar Waxwing Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Kentucky is projected to rise about 196% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.1 (95% range 1.4–8.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±80.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+196%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.4–8.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±80.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Kentucky is projected to rise about 196% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.1 (95% range 1.4–8.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±80.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.81.28.4
20264.81.28.5
20274.91.38.5
20285.01.48.6
20295.11.48.7

Cedar Waxwing Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Cedar Waxwing in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Levee 23220192010
Johnsonville2920211988
Cumberlnd Gp1620181973
Hodgenville1620031971
Bays Fork1520191999
Bardwell 21520142007
Sewell Shop1420231973
Boxville919831982
Pleasurevill920241989
Staffordsvil819971996
Drakesboro720031983
Glencoe720181967
Sulphur Lick520231983
Mckee520241973
Merrimac520241971
Eastview520241968
Dixie520191971
Goshen519991967
Carter520221979
Mcbrayer420191967
East Union420221970
Paintsville419951979
Phelps419971983
Million 2420242006
Hodgenville 2420232008

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.