BirdAnalyst
Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Michigan

All statesGeneralists

Cedar Waxwing in Michigan has surged: up 152% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+152%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
108Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cedar Waxwing Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cedar Waxwing has surged in Michigan: up 152% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Cedar Waxwing Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Michigan is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 10–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
10–2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±50.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Michigan is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 10–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025169.722
2026169.822
20271610.022
2028161023
2029161023

Cedar Waxwing Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Cedar Waxwing in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pickford7420241973
Drayton Plns6319871973
Muskallonge5520241967
Cohoctah4520242021
Walloon Lake 24120242005
Galesburg3820241966
Pleasant Valley 23820242004
Traverse Cty3219921974
Walloon Lake3120041977
Howardsville3020241970
Frederic3020031971
Lake City2820221970
Chippewa Lk.2820241993
Bravo2620231974
No Bradley2520241970
Lawrence2420241969
Adrian2420171969
Herman2320221983
Homer2320211975
Beaver Lake2320111967
Irons2219891970
Coopersville2220241979
Riggsville2020191967
Mayfield1920222000
Ontonagon1820191969

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.