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Species · Michigan · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Michigan

All statesForest birds

Cedar Waxwing in Michigan has surged: up 163% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+163%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
108Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cedar Waxwing Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cedar Waxwing has surged in Michigan: up 163% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Cedar Waxwing Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Michigan is projected to rise about 25% by 2030 — from 13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 10–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+25%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
10–2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Michigan is projected to rise about 25% by 2030 — from 13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 10–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026169.622
2027169.822
2028169.922
20291610.022
2030161023

Cedar Waxwing Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Cedar Waxwing in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Rochester6520251993
Drayton Plns6319871973
Muskallonge5520241967
Walloon Lake 24120242005
Lawrence3620251969
Nashville3520251968
Traverse Cty3219921974
Walloon Lake3120041977
Pleasant Valley 23120252004
Frederic3020031971
Lake City2820221970
Bravo2620231974
Pickford2620251973
Chippewa Lk.2620251993
Adrian2420171969
Lapeer2420252000
Herman2320221983
Homer2320211975
Beaver Lake2320111967
Irons2219891970
Monterey2220251978
Mayfield2220252000
Riggsville2020191967
Belding 21920252004
Ontonagon1820191969

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.